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EURUSD: Which Central Bank Will Break the Range?
The current trend is primarily driven by hawkish Federal Reserve decision and the cautious European Central Bank. The Federal Reserve remain to hold rates steady in the face of sticky inflation, while the European Central Bank remains hesitant, with markets pricing in only a slim probability of an April rate hike.
What factors affect the pair?
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data expected to show a strong 1.3% increase. A beat here could reinforce the USD and pressure the pair toward the 1.1700 level.
Eurozone and Germany PMIs
S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for Germany and the Eurozone for release this week with the forecasts of slump readings and could pose a risk to the Euro if the industry will continue to contract.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The US Dollar's long-term path continues to be weighed down by downside pressure as recent data reveals U.S. consumer confidence has slumped to historic lows this month.
What is the outlook for the pair?
The pair is currently at 1.17519 providing consolidative bias.
Today we expect the pair to be in Bearish Bias as long the price is at 1.1800 level. This is the psychological level.
Support Levels
- 1.1754 to 1.1730 main psychological support
- 1.1695 this is near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Resistance Levels
- 1.1770 to 1.1779 this is the price level when war started based on the 4-Hour chart
- 1.1850 cycle high or major bullish target.
Relative Strength Index (14) at 43 Mildly bearish momentum persists.
Neutral- signaling a lack of immediate conviction and potential sideways.
Decline below 1.1710 could make a return toward 1.1665. This level served as a critical pivot and support floor two weeks ago, anchoring the currency ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision.
With the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings concluded, the focus shifts to how European Central Bank and Federal Reserve’s narratives differ. The Euro's ability to withstand USD weakness is largely attributed to the ECB maintaining a predictable and stable outlook compared to its US counterpart.
The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around 43, indicating mildly bearish momentum, while the MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) is rolling over into neutral territory, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either side in the immediate term.
Conclusion & The ACY Edge
Post-IMF focus is squarely on the ECB-Fed policy gap. The Euro is holding firm for now, but a drop below 1.1710 opens the door to 1.1665. We’re currently range-bound between 1.1730 and 1.1800; look for volatility triggered by ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions and Tuesday's US Retail Sales print to dictate the next breakout.
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