NASDAQ-100 (NAS100) Price Action Forecast: Break Below 29,400–29,215 Could Open the Path to 28,600?

The US NAS 100 remains at an important technical decision point as price continues to react around key support and resistance levels.

While the broader higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, recent price action suggests that sellers are gaining control in the short term. A rejection from major resistance, combined with a bearish engulfing candlestick and a break below the previous daily higher low, has shifted the short-term outlook toward the downside.

The key levels to watch are $29,400 - $29,215 on the downside and the $29,900 - $30,400 resistance level above.

Rather than chasing price inside the current structure, the focus should remain on a confirmed break, retest, and candlestick confirmation.

The question is:

Could a confirmed break below $29,400–$29,215 trigger a bearish correction toward $28,600?

Key Takeaways:

1. NAS 100 is sitting at a major technical decision point between $29,400 and $30,400.
2. The daily chart shows a clear shift into a bearish market structure.
3. A confirmed break below $29,400–$29,215 could easily target $28,600.
4. Traders should patiently wait for a break, a retest, and candlestick confirmation.

What Is the Current Technical Price Action on NAS 100 Telling Us?

Weekly Chart Analysis: Price Could Be Forming a Lower High

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Market Structure Forming a Potential Higher High (HH)

The weekly timeframe continues to show a broader bullish market structure, but recent price action is raising questions about whether the market is preparing for a deeper retracement.

Price recently rejected a major weekly resistance level, with sellers producing a strong bearish engulfing candlestick. This suggests that buyers were unable to maintain control at higher prices and that sellers successfully defended the resistance zone.

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis

The rejection does not automatically confirm a long-term bearish reversal. Instead, it may represent a corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

Weekly chart observations

1. Weekly market structure remains broadly bullish.
2. Price has rejected a major weekly resistance level.
3. A bearish engulfing candlestick indicates increased selling pressure.
4. Price could be developing a potential Lower High (LH).
5. A retracement could occur before the broader bullish trend attempts to continue.

The key point is that one bearish reaction does not invalidate the higher-timeframe bullish structure. Confirmation is still required.

Daily Chart Analysis: NAS 100 Has Shifted to a Bearish Structure

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Price Break Below Consolidation Zone

The daily timeframe presents a more bearish picture.

Price recently broke below the previous Higher Low (HL) and the support area that had been holding the bullish structure together. The market has also broken below the previous consolidation zone.

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis

This represents an important technical development because a break below a previous higher low can signal that buyers are losing control and that the market may be transitioning into a bearish phase.

Price is also trading below the 50 EMA, providing secondary confirmation that short-term momentum has shifted toward the downside.

Daily chart observations

1. Daily market structure has shifted from bullish to bearish.
2. Price has broken below the previous Higher Low.
3. Price has broken below the consolidation zone.
4. Sellers could remain in control if broken support turns into resistance.

However, a breakdown alone is not enough.

The retest is where confirmation becomes important.

What Is the Best NAS 100 Price Action Setup Right Now?

Instead of forcing a trade while price remains inside a potentially volatile structure, there are two scenarios worth watching.

The trading plan is simple:

Wait for price to come to the level.

Wait for confirmation.

Then execute.

1. Bullish Scenario: Break and Retest Above $29,900–$30,400

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

The bullish scenario becomes more attractive if buyers regain control and price successfully breaks and retest above the major weekly resistance zone around $29,900–$30,400.

However, simply breaking above resistance is not enough.

I would want to see a proper breakout followed by a retest, with buyers defending the previous resistance as new support.

Bullish confirmation:

A bullish NAS 100 setup could develop if:

1. Price breaks above $29,900–$30,400.
2. Price successfully retests the broken resistance.
3. The previous resistance zone holds as support.
4. A bullish candlestick rejection confirms buyer participation.
5. Price shows continued bullish momentum after the retest.

Bullish trade idea:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Target: Minimum 1:2.5 risk-to-reward ratio
2. Stop-loss: Below the newly established support zone
3. Confirmation: Break resistance → Retest → Bullish rejection → Execute
4. Risk management: Use appropriate position sizing based on your predefined risk.

Note: This bullish scenario requires strong confirmation because the daily structure has already shifted bearish.

2. Bearish Scenario: Retest Below $29,400–$29,215

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

The bearish scenario is currently the setup I would pay the closest attention to because it aligns with the recent daily bearish structure.

If NAS 100 properly retest and rejects the $29,400–$29,215 resistance level, sellers could gain the confirmation needed for another lower leg.

The potential downside target is around $28,600.

Bearish confirmation:

1. A bearish setup could develop if:
2. Price breaks below $29,400–$29,215.
3. Price retests the broken support zone.
4. The former support area acts as resistance.
5. A bearish candlestick rejection confirms seller participation.
6. Price resumes downward momentum after the retest.

Bearish trade idea:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Take Profit and Stop-loss Placement

1. Potential target: $28,600
2. Stop-loss: Above the newly established resistance zone
3. Confirmation: Break support → Retest as resistance → Bearish rejection → Execute
4. Risk management: Use proper position sizing and maintain predefined risk.

Note: The bearish setup is considered higher probability because it aligns with the higher timeframe bearish market structure.

NAS 100 Price Action Forecast: What Levels Matter Now?

The reaction around these levels could determine the next meaningful NAS 100 move.

Final Take

The US NAS 100 price action forecast remains focused on confirmation.

A confirmed break below $29,400–$29,215 could open the door toward $28,600, while a reclaim of $29,900–$30,400 could invalidate the bearish setup and support further upside.

For now, the strategy is simple:

Don't chase. Don't force trades. Wait for price to come to the level, confirm the setup, and then execute.

Trade the setup. Manage the risk. Let price confirm the move.

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FAQs

What is the current NAS 100 outlook?

The short-term outlook is bearish, while the broader weekly structure remains bullish.

What is the key NAS 100 support level?

The key support zone is $29,400–$29,215. A confirmed break below this area could signal further downside.

Could NAS 100 fall to $28,600?

Yes. A confirmed break and retest below $29,400–$29,215 could open the path toward $28,600.

What is the key resistance for NAS 100?

The major resistance zone is $29,900–$30,400. A confirmed breakout above this area could strengthen the bullish outlook.

What confirms a bearish NAS 100 setup?

Look for a break below support, retest as resistance, and bearish candlestick confirmation before considering a short setup.

What confirms a bullish NAS 100 setup?

A break above $29,900–$30,400, successful retest, and bullish rejection would provide stronger confirmation for upside.

Should traders chase the current NAS 100 move?

No. The better approach is to wait for the break, retest, and confirmation before entering.

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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. August 26, 2026.