EUR/USD Price Outlook: Can Cooling Energy Costs and U.S. Jobs Data Sustain the 1.15 Breakout?

EUR/USD Analysis: Is the 1.15 Breakout Sustainable Despite Cooling Energy Costs and US NFP?

This week’s U.S. labor market reports jobless claims with a forecast around 202K and labor cost revision will determine if the U.S. dollar or DXY bounces back or continues to drop. For the month of June 2026, Eurozone Producer Prices data dropped 0.3% month-over-month due to lower energy costs. The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI up to a five-month high of 51.7 in July as lower energy prices improved sector margins and supported optimism.

KEY DRIVERS TO PRICE MOVEMENTS

Fundamental support stems from lower Eurozone energy costs following Middle East de-escalation and steady European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. The upcoming U.S. labor market data will dictate whether the Euro sustains these current gains or triggers a short-term pullback- the weekly US Jobless Claims, US Unemployment Rate and US Non-farm Payrolls data.

Source: Finlogix

TECHNICALS

Daily Chart

Source: ACY

Major Key Price Levels

Resistance

1.16201 stands out as the next major level based on the daily chart, serving as a clear indication toward recovery.

1.15880 level remains a vital threshold that we need to maintain this month to preserve overall market health, interacting closely with our moving averages.

Support

1.15359 based from hourly chart modal price this serves as support and must be closely watched if any violent reactions from headlines impacting oil price movements this week.

1.14390 this is the price level need to guard, once touched this base price prior Jackson Hole Symposium, we expect few market drivers to push its trend upward as we have priced in the effect of energy costs during the H1 2026 across the economic indicators and sectors.

Bollinger Bands now reflecting a recent volatility breakout, while the Relative Strength Index or RSI remains balanced without showing overbought signals.

Source: CNN

The EUR/USD pair is attempting a bullish breakout toward the 1.155 to 1.156 range/level, supported by a weakening DXY or U.S. dollar and softer U.S. economic data. We expect this week volatility weighing from Strait of Hormuz and Middle East conflicts resulting to inflation pressures. This Q2 season across financial markets still shadowed by inflation risks leading to wait for another growth or downgrade of economic forecast.

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