Market Quick Take – 1 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe climbed on AI and peace hopes, while Asia extended the chip-led rally despite firmer oil.
• Volatility: VIX subdued, payrolls week, ECB and US data in focus
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum softer, CME launches 24/7 crypto trading, constructive crypto-equity flow
• Fixed Income: US treasury yield rebound slightly from Friday’s local lows.
• Currencies: The US dollar pulls back after unconvincing sell-off Friday. JPY weak after scale of recent intervention revealed.
• Commodities: Oil rebound from six week low, gold dips and copper gains ahead of US tariff deadline
• Macro events: US May ISM Manufacturing

Macro headlines

• The US trade deficit narrowed in April as record exports of oil and petroleum helped offset a continued surge in imports of capital goods key to the AI boom. The shortfall fell to USD 82.4 billion with exports rising 4% and imports up 1.9%. In April, the US exported a record volume of more than 6.4 million barrels a day, according to US Energy Information Administration data, while shipments of fuels including gasoline, diesel and jet also surged.
• Oil climbed from a six-week low amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace deal possibilities, with both seeking changes over the weekend to a draft agreement that would extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. Israel, meanwhile, increased its ground assault in Lebanon as Hezbollah stepped up attacks in Northern Israel. Trump said his proposed deal states clearly that Iran will not have nuclear weapons and Iran shall fully restore free passage of the strait.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 0600 – UK May Nationwide House Price

· 1400 – US May ISM Manufacturing

· 1400 – US April Construction Spending

Fed speakers: Schmid (1050), Bowman (1310), Paulson (1315), Daly (1640)

Earnings events

• Today: Hewlett Packard Enterprise
• Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty
• Wednesday: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
• Thursday: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.7%, with all three closing at record highs. Tech led after Dell jumped 32.8% on stronger AI server demand and a higher full-year outlook, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 8.1% and Super Micro Computer gained 11.6% in sympathy. Microsoft added 5.4% as large software names recovered, but Costco fell 3.9% after earnings missed expectations despite solid sales. Investors now watch whether AI spending can keep doing the heavy lifting without pulling a financial hamstring.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%, Germany’s DAX added 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2%, leaving Europe broadly flat but positive for May. Sentiment improved on hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire extension and lower oil pressure, while inflation stayed uncomfortably above the European Central Bank’s target. CTS Eventim surged 10.7% after strong first-quarter revenue growth, Lufthansa and Air France rose more than 2% as lower oil helped airlines, while Orkla fell 5.3% after a UBS downgrade. Markets now turn to eurozone data and central-bank signals.
• Asia: Asian equities rose on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.7%, the Hang Seng up 0.9%, and the Shanghai Composite up 0.2% in the latest session. The main driver was still artificial intelligence, with South Korea’s export data showing a sharp chip-led rebound and investors looking ahead to Nvidia’s Computex-related meetings. Samsung Electronics jumped 9.5% after high-bandwidth memory progress and hopes of closer Nvidia ties, while LG Electronics surged 28% on potential AI and robotics cooperation. SoftBank rose 10.3% as AI optimism lifted Japan’s tech complex, though higher oil kept the macro backdrop politely annoying.

Volatility

• Volatility remains remarkably subdued despite a week packed with market-moving events. The VIX closed Friday at 15.32, down 2.7% on the session, while shorter-term gauges remain even lower, with VIX1D at 12.44 and VIX9D at 12.59, suggesting investors are entering the week with a relatively calm outlook. That could quickly change as markets digest today's ISM Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday's JOLTS job openings report, Wednesday's ADP employment data and ISM Services survey, Thursday's jobless claims, and Friday's closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report. In Europe, Tuesday's inflation data and Thursday's ECB meeting could also influence sentiment.
• SPX options are currently pricing an expected move of approximately 88.7 points, or 1.17%, by Friday's close, highlighting that investors expect movement but not turmoil. Options positioning continues to reflect a cautious backdrop, with sizeable hedging activity in SPX, SPY and QQQ observed on Friday alongside selective upside exposure in technology leaders such as Microsoft, Nvidia and Apple.
• Today's skew indicator shows a mild downside bias, with investors still paying slightly more for downside protection than upside participation, reflecting prudence rather than outright concern.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets start the new month on a softer note, with Bitcoin trading near $73,200, Ethereum around $1,990, Solana near $81.5, and XRP around $1.31. Most major cryptocurrencies are modestly lower following a weak finish to May, as investors continue to assess slowing ETF demand and a less supportive flow backdrop. Recent data showed net outflows from both US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, including withdrawals from IBIT and ETHA, suggesting institutional investors remain selective despite strength across broader equity markets.
• Beneath the surface, however, the long-term adoption story continues to advance. Over the weekend, CME Group launched 24/7 trading for its crypto futures and options suite, bringing regulated crypto derivatives closer to the around-the-clock nature of digital asset markets. Meanwhile, options activity in crypto-linked equities remained constructive on Friday, led by large bullish call buying in MicroStrategy (MSTR) and additional upside positioning in names such as Coinbase (COIN) and IREN. While near-term price action remains cautious, institutional participation continues to grow through regulated products and selected crypto-related equities.

Commodities

• Oil rebounded from a six-week low amid ongoing uncertainty over the prospects for a peace deal to end the war with Iran. However, the recovery in Brent to USD 93 and WTI to USD 90 has remained relatively modest as traders continue to price in the likelihood that any agreement could trigger a near-term surge in supply from vessels currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf. By now, it is also clear that several key release valves have helped prevent an even larger price spike. These include a sharp increase in US oil exports, a slump in Chinese crude imports, the use of UAE and Saudi Arabian pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and weaker end-user demand through a combination of demand destruction and use of domestic stockpiles.
• Gold trades lower following last week’s rebound from key support as oil prices recovered and progress in US-Iran peace talks remained slow. The price action highlights the market's ongoing struggle to balance the inflationary implications of elevated energy prices - which tend to support the dollar and bond yields - against longer-term bullish drivers such as de-dollarisation, fiscal debt concerns, and persistent central bank demand. For now, gold appears trapped between two key technical levels, with the 200-day moving average at USD 4,406 providing support and the 50-day moving average at USD 4,629 acting as resistance.
• Copper, one of the best performing commodities in the last month trades higher with the premium in New York rising above USD 500 per tons with traders once again pushing metal to the US ahead of June 30 deadline that should deliver more clarity on the Trump’s administration’s plans for import tariffs.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries sold off early Monday on a bounceback in crude oil prices after yields had settled at local lows on Friday. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose over two basis points to nearly 4.03%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose three basis points to 4.465%. Important US economic data set for release this week include the May ISM Manufacturing survey today, the May ISM Services survey on Wednesday and the May US jobs data on Friday.
• Japan’s government bond yields rose at the front end of the curve after it emerged late Friday that Japan’s Ministry of Finance had mobilized JPY 11.73 trillion (about USD 74 billion) to intervene in support of the Japanese yen. As well, a former BoJ member said Friday that the BoJ would likely hike the policy rate at the mid-June BoJ meeting. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield gapped higher three basis points to 1.40% while at the longer end of the curve the benchmark 30-year JGB was up less than a basis point to 3.94%.

Currencies

• The US dollar edged higher in early trading Monday after USD bears pushed it to unconvincing local lows in places on Friday. EURUSD, for example, rose above local resistance Friday at 1.1661 and posted a 1.1686 high, only to settle near that breakout point and then edge lower in early trading Monday to 1.1650.
• The JPY traded weaker to start the week, likely on the combination of higher crude oil prices but especially the details emerging Friday of the magnitude of intervention to stem JPY weakness carried out by Japan’s Ministry of Finance recently. Having thrown near JPY 12 trillion (about USD 74 billion) into the market with little effect, the market may wonder how willing the Takaichi government is to continue pursuing this approach.